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Blow by Blow: The Time Capsule Message

Added: April 29, 2007

This is a message coming to you from the year 2007.

A few years ago our country made a mistake - a big one - by invading Iraq. We are now right in the middle of suffering the severe consequences of this mistake and many of us strongly wish that things had turned out differently.

I'm going to try and bring you the immediate experience of our folly, so that in case there is a debate going on in 2107 on the issue of war, you will hopefully make better decisions than we did.

Here were the arguments that were made in favor of the war:

1. Our military strength and our prosperity are inseparably intertwined.

2. Our competitors are weak, and if we play our cards right, we can consolidate a position of global dominion that will last a very long time.

3. The world is full of people who aspire to destroy us, and we must act pre-emptively against anybody who shows even the potential to threaten us.

The attacks of Sept. 11 sent the nation into a state of shock, and in our weakened condition we accepted the above arguments without much thought. Our mistake has led to disaster.

We have no real excuse. 9/11 was a pretty solid punch in the nose, but certainly is no excuse for the complete abandonment of reason.

In deliberating on the Iraq war, we had the entire weight of the 20th century experience to draw upon. Two disastrous wars of our own (Vietnam and Korea), countless smaller conflicts and two catastrophic world wars all leading to the same conclusion: War is death, nothing more. Everyone loses, but nobody loses more than the aggressor. Every time.

If you ignore everything else about the 20th century, it is hard to ignore that.

Yet we did it again. Even with the unequivocal stack of evidence staring us right in the face, we somehow concluded that this time it would work out differently and that launching a ground invasion of the Middle East was a good idea.

1950 - We decide to march north of the 38th parallel and invade North Korea. It takes two and a half years and 45,000 lives to prove that this is a bad idea.

1965 - We decide to escalate the war in Vietnam, ultimately sending more than 500,000 troops to the country. It takes 10 years and 50,000 young men (and millions of Vietnamese) to prove that this was a bad idea.

2003 - We decide to launch a land invasion of Iraq. Improved medical treatment keeps the casualty rate artificially low (currently 3,000+). The maimed and permanently disabled are currently at 15,000+. As of 2007 there is no clear answer as to how we can get out of Iraq without touching off a massive regional conflagration. However, we also don't have a viable way to stay, since our military isn't structured or trained for long term occupation and counter-insurgency. We can get out now, and admit that it was all a mistake and that those 3,000 kids died for nothing, or we can wait another few years until another 3,000 have died and then admit that it was all a mistake and that all those kids died for nothing.

Same story. Bad leaders make a bad idea sound like a good one. Thousands of young men die. Everyone says, "Boy, that sure was a bad idea, let's never do that again!".

You folks in the future know exactly how it turned out. I'm just trying to give you a really clear idea of what it is like to be in the middle of it, unsure if it will be a 10 year setback, a 50 year setback, or the beginning of the end for America as a nation.

I hope that your are living in enlightened times, and you are looking back at the madness of the early 21st century with curiosity and relief that things have improved so much.

But in case that your are not, this is my message to you:

If your leaders are trying to convince you that war is a good idea, don't listen to them. If they are trying to tell you that war is anything other than a last resort, don't listen to them. If they are trying to tell you that prosperity and military strength are inseparable, don't listen to them. If they are trying to tell you that if we play our cards right, we can gain a position of global domination that will last for a 1,000 years, don't listen to them.

These are the mesmerizing charms of war that lead nations to forget the unyielding lessons of history and take the path to ruin.

If the nation is debating whether to go to war or not in 2107, I cannot put in more emphatic terms:

Don't do it.

This is my message to you from 2007.

Sincerely,

Joe Block
Talent Oregon
March 14, 2007

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